Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 ENE 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 29 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 29 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 46 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 49 N 1 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 50 N 1 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 50 N 1 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 68 50 NW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 49 NW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 46 NW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 44 NNW 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 39 NNW 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 NNW 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 NNE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 NNE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 NNE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 ENE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 ENE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 ENE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 ENE 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 31 ENE 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 ENE 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 E 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 29 E 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 E 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 29 E 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 E 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 44 E 8 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 46 NE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 47 NE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 47 NE 3 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 47 NNW 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 46 NNW 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 43 NNW 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 41 N 11 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 36 N 11 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 N 11 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 34 ENE 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 33 ENE 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 32 ENE 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 31 E 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 31 E 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 30 E 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 28 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 27 ENE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 26 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 26 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 25 ENE 4 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 26 NNW 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 NNW 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 NNW 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 42 SSW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 43 SSW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 43 SSW 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 43 WSW 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 42 WSW 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 39 WSW 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 38 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 34 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 33 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 33 N 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 N 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 N 2 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 30 NNE 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 30 NNE 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 NNE 5 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 27 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 27 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 26 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 26 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 25 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 26 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 ENE 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 41 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 42 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 43 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 41 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 41 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 38 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 33 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 32 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 31 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 31 NE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 30 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 30 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 29 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 27 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 27 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 25 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 26 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 25 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 26 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 39 ESE 7 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 42 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 42 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 42 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 42 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 41 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 40 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 38 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 35 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 33 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 32 W 10 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 32 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 31 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 30 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 29 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 27 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 28 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 27 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 28 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 41 ENE 6 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 44 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 44 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 45 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 44 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 44 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 41 W 9 -1 300 -0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)