Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 3570
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 ENE 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 0 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 0 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 NE 0 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 ESE 2 4012 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 67 ESE 2 6191 4603 1033 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 68 70 ESE 2 6864 6171 2601 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 71 72 W 3 7310 6617 3047 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 70 71 W 3 7087 6395 2825 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 70 70 W 3 6864 6171 2601 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 67 67 ENE 5 6191 4603 1033 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 62 62 ENE 5 4012 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 5 3092 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 16 3092 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 E 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 E 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 E 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 E 19 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 19 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 19 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 ENE 27 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 58 ENE 27 2781 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 59 ENE 27 3092 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 61 E 16 3708 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 59 E 16 3092 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 E 16 3092 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 E 18 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 ENE 16 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 ESE 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 ESE 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 ESE 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 WNW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 SW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 SW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 54 SW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 53 WSW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 WSW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 WSW 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 9 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 WNW 3 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 WNW 3 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 WNW 3 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NNW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NNW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NNW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 47 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 49 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 49 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 49 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 E 10 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 SSW 4 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 50 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 8 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 SW 2 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 50 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 52 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 2674 3570 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)