Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 E 6 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 65 E 3 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 70 E 3 2110 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 73 E 3 3016 2097 547 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 74 76 WNW 5 3902 2995 1445 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 73 74 WNW 5 3313 2398 848 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 73 73 WNW 5 3016 2097 547 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 70 70 WNW 7 2110 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 WNW 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 ENE 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 ENE 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 E 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 E 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 E 4 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 ESE 17 1183 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 65 ESE 17 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 64 ESE 17 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 62 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 E 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 E 13 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 E 13 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 13 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 E 12 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 E 12 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 E 12 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 9 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 9 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 9 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 7 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 E 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 WSW 3 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 WSW 3 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 61 WSW 3 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 63 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 61 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 2 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 2 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 2 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NE 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 NE 5 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 56 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 ENE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 ESE 8 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 57 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 60 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 62 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 11 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 E 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 59 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 62 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 63 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 10 774 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)