Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 19 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 18 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 18 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 18 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 N 10 3017 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 64 N 10 3932 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 67 N 10 4829 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 66 N 10 4532 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 N 10 4233 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 N 10 3324 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 N 25 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 N 25 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 N 25 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 NNE 31 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NNE 31 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NNE 31 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 32 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 32 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 32 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 40 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 45 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 45 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 45 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 N 48 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 N 48 2707 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 N 48 3324 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 62 N 34 3324 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 60 N 34 2707 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 57 N 34 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 22 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 22 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 22 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 16 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 9 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 N 9 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 N 9 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NNW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 52 NNW 4 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 NNW 4 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 57 NNW 4 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 56 WSW 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 55 WSW 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 6 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 WNW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 WNW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 WNW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 N 13 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 N 17 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 N 17 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 N 17 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 N 20 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 51 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 53 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 53 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 52 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 N 11 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 ESE 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 54 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SSW 3 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 54 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 56 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 56 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 55 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 5 2674 4040 -0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)