Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 43 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 42 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 41 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 40 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 40 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 40 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 39 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 39 ENE 4 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 43 ENE 4 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 51 ENE 4 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 58 NNW 2 559 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 62 NNW 2 630 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 64 NNW 2 666 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 64 WNW 5 666 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 70 63 WNW 5 648 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 69 61 WNW 5 613 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 58 WNW 7 559 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 54 WNW 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 51 WNW 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 49 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 47 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 45 ENE 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 44 ENE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 43 ENE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 42 ENE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 41 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 40 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 39 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 39 ENE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 39 ENE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 38 ENE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 38 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 42 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 49 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 54 E 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 57 E 12 541 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 59 E 12 577 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 59 ENE 8 577 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 58 ENE 8 559 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 56 ENE 8 523 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 53 NE 10 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 49 NE 10 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 46 NE 10 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 44 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 43 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 41 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 40 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 39 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 38 ENE 12 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 37 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 36 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 35 ENE 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 35 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 35 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 34 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 34 NE 2 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 37 NE 2 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 44 NE 2 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 49 SSW 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 52 SSW 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 54 SSW 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 54 WSW 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 53 WSW 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 51 WSW 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 49 W 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 46 W 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 44 W 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 42 ESE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 41 ESE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 40 ESE 3 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 38 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 38 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 37 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 36 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 36 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 35 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 35 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 35 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 34 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 34 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 37 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 43 E 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 48 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 51 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 53 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 52 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 53 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 50 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 48 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 45 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 43 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 42 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 41 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 39 ENE 6 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 38 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 38 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 37 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 36 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 36 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 35 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 35 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 34 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 34 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 34 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 37 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 43 ESE 7 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 48 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 50 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 52 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 52 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 52 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 51 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 49 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 46 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 44 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 43 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 42 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 41 W 9 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 40 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 39 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 39 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 38 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 37 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 37 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 37 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 36 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 36 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 36 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 39 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 45 E 5 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 50 W 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 52 W 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 54 W 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 54 W 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 55 W 8 505 1050 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 52 W 8 495 1050 -0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)