SoaringPredictor for Lake Elsinore

Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350

Sounding
Station:	KNKX
Date/Time:	1200Z 24 DEC 07
Temp/Wind data from::	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Mon	53	53	N 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	52	52	N 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	52	52	N 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	51	51	N 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	51	51	NNW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	51	51	NNW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	51	51	NNW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	52	52	NNW 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	55	55	NNW 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	59	59	NNW 6	1655	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Mon	62	63	N 5	2904	2650	0	Blue	1
11 AM Mon	64	66	N 5	3817	2901	251	Blue	4
12 Noon Mon	66	68	N 5	4414	3505	855	Blue	6
1 PM Mon	67	69	NW 4	4710	3805	1155	Blue	7
2 PM Mon	66	67	NW 4	4117	3204	554	Blue	5
3 PM Mon	66	66	NW 4	3817	2901	251	Blue	4
4 PM Mon	63	63	N 10	2904	2650	0	Blue	1
5 PM Mon	57	57	N 10	1016	2650	0	Blue	0
6 PM Mon	56	56	N 10	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 PM Mon	55	55	NNE 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 PM Mon	54	54	NNE 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 PM Mon	52	52	NNE 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	51	51	N 11	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	51	51	N 11	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	50	50	N 11	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	50	50	N 19	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	48	48	N 19	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	47	47	N 19	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	47	47	N 20	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	47	47	N 20	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	47	47	N 20	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	48	48	N 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	51	51	N 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	55	56	N 17	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	58	59	NNE 23	1655	2650	0	Blue	0
11 AM Tue	60	62	NNE 23	2596	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Tue	62	64	NNE 23	3211	2650	0	Blue	2
1 PM Tue	63	65	NNE 17	3515	2650	0	Blue	3
2 PM Tue	62	63	NNE 17	2904	2650	0	Blue	1
3 PM Tue	62	62	NNE 17	2596	2650	0	Blue	0
4 PM Tue	60	60	NNE 11	1971	2650	0	Blue	0
5 PM Tue	54	54	NNE 11	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 PM Tue	53	53	NNE 11	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	52	52	NE 9	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	51	51	NE 9	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	50	50	NE 9	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	49	49	NE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	49	49	NE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	48	48	NE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	48	48	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	46	46	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	45	45	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	45	45	NNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	45	45	NNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	45	45	NNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	45	45	WNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	48	48	WNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	50	50	WNW 2	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	52	53	SSW 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 AM Wed	53	55	SSW 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Wed	54	56	SSW 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 PM Wed	55	56	SSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 PM Wed	54	55	SSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 PM Wed	54	54	SSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 PM Wed	52	52	WSW 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 PM Wed	48	48	WSW 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 PM Wed	47	47	WSW 6	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 PM Wed	47	47	E 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	46	46	E 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	45	45	E 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	44	44	ENE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	44	44	ENE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	43	43	ENE 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	43	43	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	42	42	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	41	41	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	41	41	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	41	41	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	41	41	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	41	41	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	44	44	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	46	46	NNE 12	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	48	49	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 AM Thu	49	50	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Thu	50	52	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 PM Thu	51	52	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 PM Thu	50	51	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 PM Thu	51	51	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 PM Thu	49	49	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 PM Thu	47	47	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 PM Thu	46	46	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	46	46	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	45	45	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	44	44	NE 5	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	44	44	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	44	44	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	43	43	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	43	43	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	45	45	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	48	48	SSW 3	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Fri	50	51	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 AM Fri	51	52	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Fri	52	53	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 PM Fri	53	54	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 PM Fri	52	53	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 PM Fri	53	53	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 PM Fri	51	51	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 PM Fri	48	48	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	47	47	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	46	46	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	46	46	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	45	45	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	44	44	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	44	44	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	44	44	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	44	44	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	43	43	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	42	42	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	42	42	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	42	42	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	42	42	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	42	42	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	46	46	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	49	49	N 4	774	2650	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	52	53	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	54	55	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Sat	55	56	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
1 PM Sat	56	57	WSW 7	1016	2650	0	Blue	0
2 PM Sat	55	56	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0
3 PM Sat	56	56	WSW 7	774	2650	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)