Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NE 8 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 NNE 3 6409 5630 -0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 61 63 NNE 3 7782 7087 1457 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 61 63 NNE 3 7782 7087 1457 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 62 64 SSE 6 8120 7313 1683 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 61 62 SSE 6 7555 6859 1229 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 57 57 SSE 6 6409 5630 -0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 52 52 N 3 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 N 3 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 N 3 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 ENE 4 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 ENE 4 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 ENE 4 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 9 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 9 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 9 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 NE 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 23 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NE 23 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 NE 23 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 NE 14 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 53 NE 14 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 NE 14 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 17 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 17 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 ENE 17 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 ENE 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 ENE 6 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 NNW 2 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 NNW 2 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 NNW 2 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 5 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 5 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 WNW 5 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 8 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 W 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 W 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 W 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 50 W 18 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 50 W 18 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 W 18 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 WNW 13 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 WNW 13 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 WNW 13 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 NW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 NW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 NW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NNW 11 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 39 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 43 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 43 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 42 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 41 42 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 30 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 10 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 44 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 44 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 44 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 43 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 39 39 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 35 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 W 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 16 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 49 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 12 5020 5630 -0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)