Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NE 21 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 21 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NE 21 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 21 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NE 20 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 N 12 845 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 58 N 12 1488 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 59 N 12 1805 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 58 N 12 1488 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 N 12 1805 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 59 N 12 1805 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 58 N 22 1488 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 56 N 22 845 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 N 22 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 22 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 N 22 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 22 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 33 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NE 35 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 54 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 38 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 NE 18 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 13 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 N 14 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 47 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 48 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 47 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 47 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 N 10 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NNW 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 17 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 15 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 46 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 46 47 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 47 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 48 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 NNE 9 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NNE 5 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 2 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 48 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 48 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 S 6 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 S 4 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 3 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 52 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 WNW 1 774 3540 -0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)