Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NNE 8 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 70 ENE 5 6861 6167 1627 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 71 73 ENE 5 7527 6836 2296 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 73 75 ENE 5 8055 7278 2738 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 74 76 SE 10 8408 7498 2958 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 76 SE 10 8408 7498 2958 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 72 72 SE 10 7306 6614 2074 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 66 66 N 2 5530 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 58 58 N 2 2776 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 2 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NE 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 19 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 19 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 NNE 19 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NE 26 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 NE 26 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 NE 26 4007 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 62 NE 17 4007 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 62 NE 17 4007 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 NE 17 3087 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 16 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 16 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 16 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 ENE 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 ENE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 ENE 7 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 NE 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 NE 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 NE 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 3 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 3 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 3 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 W 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 W 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 W 4 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 WSW 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 WSW 9 3087 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 60 WSW 9 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 60 W 15 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 60 W 15 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 W 15 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 W 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 W 13 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 W 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 W 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 W 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NNW 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NNW 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NNW 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 9 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 51 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 52 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 51 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 52 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 ENE 14 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 52 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 54 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 55 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 WSW 10 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 W 11 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 WNW 12 2674 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 58 WNW 12 2776 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 59 WNW 12 3087 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 59 WNW 12 3087 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 60 WNW 12 3396 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 12 2674 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)