Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 WNW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 WNW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 WNW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 NW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 14 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 NNE 14 1908 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 54 55 NNE 14 2441 2150 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 55 56 NNE 14 2706 2150 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 14 2175 2150 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 14 2175 2150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 53 53 N 15 1908 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 49 49 N 15 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 N 15 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 N 15 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 N 15 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 15 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 NNE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 49 NNE 9 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 NNE 9 1639 2150 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 51 52 NNE 9 1639 2150 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 51 52 NNE 9 1639 2150 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 9 1368 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 W 4 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 W 4 891 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 W 4 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 W 4 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 4 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 W 4 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 NW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 10 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 10 891 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 49 NNW 10 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 50 NNW 10 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 NNW 10 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 NNW 10 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 891 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 NW 12 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 NW 12 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 NW 12 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NW 12 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NW 12 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 N 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 N 7 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 41 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 44 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 45 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 46 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 46 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 46 W 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 3 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 13 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 9 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 SSW 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 48 SSW 5 891 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 49 SSW 5 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 SW 2 1035 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 SW 2 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 SW 2 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 SW 2 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SW 2 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 SW 2 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 SSE 8 778 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 50 S 5 1180 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 51 S 5 1368 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 52 S 5 1639 2150 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 52 52 S 5 1639 2150 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 52 52 S 5 1639 2150 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)