Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5300
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 N 20 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 19 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 19 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 19 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 N 11 3661 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 62 N 11 4876 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 65 N 11 6395 5300 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 63 64 N 10 6168 5300 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 63 64 N 10 6168 5300 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 62 62 N 10 4876 5300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 58 N 27 3661 5300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 N 27 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 N 27 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NNE 35 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NNE 35 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 NNE 35 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 37 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 37 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 37 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 46 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 46 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 46 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 N 45 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 N 45 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 45 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 51 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 51 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 N 51 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 N 53 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 55 N 53 2726 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 57 N 53 3351 5300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 56 NNE 36 3040 5300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 NNE 36 3040 5300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 36 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 23 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 NNE 23 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 NNE 23 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 N 16 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 N 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 NW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 NW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 NNW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 50 NNW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 53 NNW 4 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 WSW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 WSW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 N 14 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 N 14 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 N 14 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 N 20 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 N 20 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 N 20 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 N 26 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 47 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 49 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 47 48 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 48 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 NNE 13 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 49 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 SW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 50 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 5 2674 5300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)