Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 24 DEC 07

Temp/Wind data from::

NOAA Digital Forecast
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 ENE 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 NW 1 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 68 NW 1 1793 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 71 NW 1 2709 1785 285 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 73 WNW 6 3308 2392 892 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 71 72 WNW 6 3009 2090 590 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 6 2709 1785 285 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 7 1793 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 NE 5 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 5 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 5 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 1 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 E 1 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 E 1 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 E 9 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 E 9 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 E 9 857 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 E 10 1483 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 65 E 10 857 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 64 E 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 NE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 56 NE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 NE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 16 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 ENE 16 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 16 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 E 12 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 E 12 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 E 12 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 SW 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 SW 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 61 SW 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 63 W 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 61 W 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 W 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 E 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 E 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 E 4 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 56 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 10 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 ESE 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 53 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 59 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 61 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 8 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 774 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 59 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 61 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 63 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 7 774 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst (tadh@flytorrey.com)